Species sensitivity distributions: data and model choice   总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19  

Wheeler JR  Grist EP  Leung KM  Morritt D  Crane M 《Marine pollution bulletin》2002,45(1-12):192-202

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are increasingly incorporated into ecological risk assessment procedures. Although these new techniques offer a more transparent approach to risk assessment they demand more and superior quality data. Issues of data quantity and quality are especially important for marine datasets that tend to be smaller (and have fewer standard test methods) when compared with freshwater data. An additional source of uncertainty when using SSDs is appropriate selection from the range of methods used in their construction. We show through examples the influence of data quantity, data quality, and choice of model. We then show how regulatory decisions may be affected by these factors.  相似文献   

Predicting tsunami arrivals: Estimates and policy implications     

Dao Hua Zhang  Tsz Leung Yip  Chiu-On Ng 《Marine Policy》2009

Tsunami is one of a few kinds of natural disasters that leave people some time for escape. This escape time, which is essentially the time for the giant wave to propagate from the epicentre to a coast, has to be estimated without delay upon the occurrence of the incident. With the advancement of water wave theories, much work has been done to model the propagation of tsunamis from deep oceans to shallow water. The authors argue that while much emphasis has been put on the expansion of the high-tech early warning system and the development of complicated tsunami models, a simple-to-use yet accurate predictive model is still wanting. This paper presents a handy linear wave model, which is capable of estimating the arrival time of a tsunami with very good accuracy, as has been verified by comparison with past incidents. With the availability of such a simple model, even local communities without access to a high-tech warning system can readily estimate the time left for emergency evacuation.  相似文献   

Consistent global responses of marine ecosystems to future climate change across the IPCC AR5 earth system models     

Cabré  Anna  Marinov  Irina  Leung  Shirley 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(5-6):1253-1280

Climate Dynamics - We analyze for the first time all 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with explicit marine ecological modules to identify the common mechanisms involved in...  相似文献   

Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model     

Samson Hagos  L. Ruby Leung  Yongkang Xue  Aaron Boone  Fernando de Sales  Naresh Neupane  Maoyi Huang  Jin-Ho Yoon 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2765-2775

Land use and land cover (LULC) over Africa have changed substantially over the last 60 years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties of model simulated response in the African monsoon system and Sahel precipitation due to LULC change using a set of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature. The relationship between the model responses to LULC change and the climatologists of the control simulations is also examined. Simulations that are climatologically too dry or too wet compared to observations and reanalyses have weak response to land use change because they are in moisture or energy limited regimes respectively. The ones that lie in between have stronger response to the LULC changes, showing a more significant role in land–atmosphere interactions. Much of the change in precipitation is related to changes in circulation, particularly to the response of the intensity and latitudinal position of the African Easterly Jet, which varies with the changes in meridional surface temperature gradients. The study highlights the need for measurements of the surface fluxes across the meridional cross-section of the Sahel to evaluate models and thereby allowing human impacts such as land use change on the monsoon to be projected more realistically.  相似文献   

Recombination induced softening and reheating of the cosmic plasma     

P. K. Leung  C. W. Chan  M.-C. Chu 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,349(2):632-640

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High-order Taylor series expansion methods for error propagation in geographic information systems   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jie Xue  Yee Leung  Jiang-Hong Ma 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2015,17(2):187-206

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Estimation of Facies Boundaries Using Categorical Indicators with P-Field Simulation and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)     

Siavash Nejadi  Japan Trivedi  Juliana Y. Leung 《Natural Resources Research》2015,24(2):121-138

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Impacts of enhanced CCN on the organization of convection and recent reduced counts of monsoon depressions     

T. N. Krishnamurti  Andrew Martin  Ruby Krishnamurti  Anu Simon  Aype Thomas  Vinay Kumar 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(1):117-134

Monsoon depressions, that form during the Indian summer monsoon season (June to September) are known to be baroclinic disturbances (horizontal scale 2,000–3,000 km) and are driven by deep convection that carries a very large vertical slope towards cold air aloft in the upper troposphere. Deep convection is nearly always organized around the scale of these depressions. In the maintenance of the monsoon depression the generation of eddy kinetic energy on the scale of the monsoon depression is largely governed by the “in scale” covariance of heating and temperature and of vertical velocity and temperature over the region of the monsoon depression. There are normally about 6–8 monsoon depressions during a summer monsoon season. Recent years 2009, 2010 and 2011 saw very few (around 1, 0 and 1 per season respectively). The best numerical models such as those from ECMWF and US (GFS) carried many false alarms in their 3–5 day forecasts, more like 6–8 disturbances. Even in recent years with fewer observed monsoon depressions a much larger number of depressions is noted in ECMWF forecasts. These are fairly comprehensive models that carry vast data sets (surface and satellite based), detailed data assimilation, and are run at very high resolutions. The monsoon depression is well resolved by these respective horizontal resolutions in these models (at 15 and 35 km). These models carry complete and detailed physical parameterizations. The false alarms in their forecasts leads us to suggest that some additional important ingredient may be missing in these current best state of the art models. This paper addresses the effects of pollution for the enhancement of cloud condensation nuclei and the resulting disruption of the organization of convection in monsoon depressions. Our specific studies make use of a high resolution mesoscale model (WRF/CHEM) to explore the impacts of the first and second aerosol indirect effects proposed by Twomey and Albrecht. We have conducted preliminary studies including examination of the evolution of radar reflectivity (computed inversely from the model hydrometeors) for normal and enhanced CCN effects (arising from enhanced monsoon pollution). The time lapse histories show a major disruption in the organization of convection of the monsoon depressions on the time scale of a week to 10 days in these enhanced CCN scenarios.  相似文献   

Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

L. O. Mearns  S. Sain  L. R. Leung  M. S. Bukovsky  S. McGinnis  S. Biner  D. Caya  R. W. Arritt  W. Gutowski  E. Takle  M. Snyder  R. G. Jones  A. M. B. Nunes  S. Tucker  D. Herzmann  L. McDaniel  L. Sloan 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):965-975

We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.  相似文献   

Special features of cyclotron radiation in anisotropic plasmas     

P. C. W. Fung  P. L. Leung 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1987,137(1):33-62

We analyze the special features of cyclotron radiation in four different modes radiated by a mildly relativistic electron current in an anisotropic plasma, taking into consideration that the radiation is transmitted along the group velocity, rather than the wave normal direction. A systematic series of numerical analysis is carried out, to demonstrate the characteristics of the focussing effect and Doppler effect of the radiation, arising from anisotropy. The parameters used pertain to plasmas and radiators of the types encountered in the terrestrial upper atmosphere and the solar corona.  相似文献